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Ai, sounds like you're really in the home stretch! At 38 weeks plus, those tightening sensations (baby hardening) mixed with lower belly pain could be Braxton Hicks or early labour signs, but the fact that it's not consistent, sometimes just pain without the hardening, is tricky to say lah. A few of my mum friends had similar mixed signals at this stage and doc confirmed it was just practice contractions, tapi ada jugak yang dah in active labour. Best you check with your doctor or OB to confirm, especially since you're already 38 weeks, they can do a check to see if cervix ada bukak or not, then you'll know where you stand! Meanwhile, time those pains if you can and note down the pattern, that info memang helpful untuk doc.